Breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the leading cause of cancer-related death among women worldwide. While endocrine therapies, including selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) and aromatase inhibitors (AIs), have demonstrated efficacy in reducing breast cancer risk in high-risk populations, their comparative effectiveness, safety profiles, and cost-efficiency have not been fully elucidated, limiting informed clinical and policy decision-making. To address this gap, we conducted a network meta-analysis (NMA) encompassing six randomized controlled trials (n = 50 746) and developed an integrated Markov-decision tree model to systematically assess comparative efficacy, adverse events, and economic outcomes. The NMA revealed that exemestane (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.25–0.80), anastrozole (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.35–0.71), and tamoxifen (OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.57–0.81) significantly reduced overall breast cancer risk compared with placebo, with consistent protective effects observed in both invasive and estrogen receptor–positive subtypes. In contrast, none of the agents demonstrated significant efficacy in preventing estrogen receptor–negative breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Notably, tamoxifen was associated with markedly elevated risks of deep vein thrombosis (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.15–2.17) and endometrial cancer (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.31–3.81). From the perspective of the Chinese healthcare system, exemestane provided the highest quality-adjusted life-years (14.87 QALYs) at the lowest total cost (CNY 14 079), thereby dominating anastrozole (14.59 QALYs; CNY 15 776) and tamoxifen (14.59 QALYs; CNY 18 916). Collectively, these results supported the preferential use of exemestane for breast cancer chemoprevention in high-risk women and offered robust evidence to guide clinical practice and health policy decisions.